Award winning Peacemaker Douglas Noll discovers brain function and peacemaking connection

While studying conflict resolution Douglas Noll discovered the scientific and neuropsychological reason negotiators fail at peace talks. "When I took modern scientific studies and transposed them onto past failed peace talks, the answers became clear. We have been using 18th century strategies in a 21st century world to resolve conflict. This led to writing Elusive Peace in the hope that diplomats, politicians and voters would use this information to become better informed and using the keys in my book shift from failure to success by employing professional mediation skills instead of outdated strategies that cause financial devastation and cost innocent lives," Noll explains.

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Douglas E. Noll Professional Mediator

The time has come to use what we know in resolving conflicts internationally, nationally, and personally

San Francisco, CA (PRWEB) April 30, 2012

Douglas Noll, award winning author of Elusive Peace: How Modern Diplomatic Strategies Could Better Resolve World Conflict (Prometheus, 2011) and award winning peacemaker, discovered the connection between brain function and peacemaking while studying conflict resolution strategies. This information contributed to the motivation to write his book and teach others his groundbreaking theories.
“Because we are 98 percent emotional and two percent rational, when people are in conflict, heightened emotions play a bigger role than rationality. Until people understand this, and begin to develop better skills and strategies to overcome natural tendencies to react, peace will remain elusive,” Noll explains, adding that “the problem of ongoing conflict exists in the international arena as well as between couples in relationships. Until there is understanding about brain function, people will continue to be stuck in a vicious cycle of ongoing and repeated conflict.”

While researching peacemaking Noll compared the failed peace negotiations of the past several
years and realized that the failure to create peace was due to outdated models of negotiating peace and not factoring in scientific studies that explain how the mind works in the context of conflict.
“I found that traditional military and diplomatic methods for resolving global conflicts cannot work. In Elusive Peace I show why with explanations ranging from neuropsychology to philosophy and political analysis,” Noll explains.

Noll’s body of work explains how diplomats enter negotiations with flawed assumptions about human behavior, sovereignty, and power, and shows that negotiators still use a model of European diplomacy dating back to the 18th century to solve the complex problems of the 21st century. Through numerous examples, the author shows that the key failure in current diplomatic efforts is the entrenched belief that nations, through their representatives, will act rationally to further their individual political, economic, and strategic interests. However, the contemporary scientific understanding of how people act and see their world does not support this assumption. On the contrary, research from decision-making theory, behavioral economics, social neuropsychology, and current best practices in mediation indicate that emotional and irrational factors often have as much, if not more, to do with the success or failure of a mediated solution.

“We must use professional and skilled mediators at negotiation tables around the world in areas of conflict to benefit from what we now know scientifically, and what we want to happen in peacemaking during a time when conflict worldwide is at an all time high and the threat of weaponry use is increasing,” Noll warns. For interview contact dianeden(at)centurytel(dot)net.

About Douglas Noll
Douglas Noll is the winner of the International Peace and Justice Book Award for Elusive Peace: How Modern Diplomatic Strategies Could Better Resolve World Conflicts. Doug is the 2012 winner of the CLAY award for co-founding the pro bono project Prison of Peace. Doug is a keynote speaker and sought after leader in the field of international, domestic and business conflicts.
http://www.facebook/DouglasNoll.com
Doug is a founding board member of Mediators Beyond Borders, and the 2012 President of the California Dispute Resolution Council.

Noll is a Fellow of the International Academy of Mediators, a Distinguished Fellow of the American College of Civil Trial Mediators, a Diplomat of the California and National Academy of Distinguished Neutrals, a core faculty member of the American Institute of Mediation, and on the American Arbitration Association panel of mediators and arbitrators. Mr. Noll was one of the first U.S. mediators certified under the international mediator standards established by the International Mediation Institute. Doug is the author of Elusive Peace: How Modern Diplomatic Strategies Could Better Resolve World Conflicts (Prometheus, 2011), winner of the international peace and justice book award. Doug Noll is a core faculty member of the American Institute of Mediation, a preeminent mediation Training Institute founded by Lee Jay Berman. http://americaninstituteofmediation.com

Segment 1: The Complexities of Foreign Policies.

Our guest on this edition of The Doug Noll Show is Kathleen Brush, an author, senior executive and global business consultant. Kathleen’s articles have been published by CNBC, Fox Business, The Washington Post, Financial Times China, Business Week and Entrepreneur. Her book, The World Made Easy, is designed to help us understand the complexities of foreign policies throughout the world.

Kathleen studied the regions of the world (194 countries) and evaluated their different political systems, economic systems, social cultural systems and significant events in history. Her goal was to simplify the systems to achieve easier understanding as well as answer questions like, “Why are there uprisings in the middle east and North Africa?” and “Why do people do things differently in China?” for example. Kathleen believes if a country is running fine with their current systems and their people are not revolting, the U.S. shouldn’t get involved. However, there are many brutal regimes in the world. There are still labor camps and places where people get shot for opposing the government. The solution is continuing to foster education so that people can self-determine what type of government is best for their own country.

Segment 2: Africa Divided.

The division of Africa in the late 1890s has caused more misery and conflict on that continent than we can even imagine. The map was formed without any consideration or concern for ethno-linguistic groups. It’s a source of a great number of tribal conflicts to this day. The continent has been deprived of effective leadership as well. Again, education is one of the keys.

Segment 3: Afghanistan’s Struggle Continues.

The Afghani people have been fighting for centuries. Kathleen believes they might not even WANT to live in peace. Fighting is what they do well. This is a country with many tribal groups and that has been geopolitically strategic for the last 1,000 years. A destabilized Afghanistan is of political interest to the Pakistani military, and China is now investing millions of dollars into Afghanistan to extract the mineral resources. The unemployment rate is 75%. Add to that the geopolitical problems (it has one of the most corrupt governments on the planet), an extremely high literacy rate and one of the lowest per capita incomes in the world and it is clear they need a lot of help (i.e. economic development and education) to be able to move forward.

Segment 4: Held to a Higher Standard.

Throughout history, when women became educated and established themselves professionally, they were able to make a bigger impact. However, even in the U.S. we still have challenges with equality. Kathleen found when she conducted business internationally she was seen as an AMERICAN first and a WOMAN second, which made it easier for her to work in foreign countries. Because the U.S. is #1 economically and militarily, we are held to a higher standard and need to step up to the plate.

To listen to the entire interview: 

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Segment 1: The Globalization of Love.

On this edition of The Doug Noll Show we speak with Wendy Williams, author of The Globalisation of Love, a book about multicultural romance and marriage. Wendy has lived in 6 different countries and has worked internationally for 18 years. She is Canadian, married to an Austrian, and lives in Vienna, Austria with their daughter. Wendy’s book is based on dozens of interviews with multicultural couples from around the world and includes chapters on multicultural weddings, religion, race, food, language and children.

Segment 2: The Increase in Multicultural Relationships.

Wendy was born into a multicultural environment and grew up in a multicultural family. At an early age she recognized cultural differences. She says there is no specific “formula” for what makes a multicultural relationship work. It’s all about the individuals involved. Her advice for young people getting into multicultural relationships is to start asking questions very early in the relationship and become educated about your partner’s culture and his or her reactions to certain situations. That way, instead of assuming your partner is stubborn and big-headed, you realize they are just acting according to the cultural norm for the society from which they come. Sit together and ask questions. Listen. Don’t make assumptions.

So why are there so many multicultural relationships these days? Wendy believes the increase is due to having more opportunities to meet. People are traveling more for business and pleasure. The internet is also a big factor, as technology has enabled people to stay in contact cheaply and conveniently. With ongoing globalization, society is becoming much more accepting of multi-cultural relationships.

Segment 3: Meeting the Parents.

Imagine meeting the parents for the first time: you are jet-lagged from flying to a new country, you don’t speak the language, there’s the issue of accommodations, and you go from being complete strangers to sharing a bathroom together very quickly. Often the native family wants to impress the incoming person and goes overboard with local activities and celebrations, which just adds to the pressure. Family relationships can be quite intense, and you can imagine the conflict that can arise when a family is not educated about other cultures and lifestyles.

Segment 4: The Path to Peace.

Multicultural children usually go through a period of questioning, “Who am I? What am I? Where do I belong in the world?” Wendy has found that they usually gravitate toward one parent or the other, which can be difficult. On the other hand, these children grow up knowing a world of differences which enables them to be very open and accepting of different people and ways of doing things. The globalization of love is the path to peace. Multicultural families prove every day that their families are “ambassadors for world peace.” They promote acceptance and tolerance. The modern multicultural relationship is defined by the individuals within it, not by society.

To listen to the complete interview: 

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Segment 1: “We’re going to war.”

Our guest on this edition of The Doug Noll Show is no stranger to war and espionage. Art Keller is a former CIA officer who served in the Counter-Proliferation Division, a unit responsible for spying on and sabotaging Weapons of Mass Destruction programs. He also has worked on terrorism cases and his last assignment was as acting Chief of Base in the tribal areas of Pakistan.

Art’s personal journey began after high school, when he joined the army and then studied foreign affairs in college. His interest in foreign affairs led him to apply to the CIA and after an arduous selection process (he applied multiple times, and later found out that was the norm) he was accepted into the CIA organization. He wound up in the Counter-Proliferation Division with instructions to keep an eye on weapons of mass destruction. It was Art’s job to cover Iran’s missile program, and he does not believe that Saddam Hussein ever had weapons of mass destruction (WMD). However, his Chief of Station returned from headquarters and announced that “the decision had already been made: we’re going to war.” It was shocking.

Segment 2: A Corrupted Process.

In order to make the best policies, the policy makers need to know what’s really happening in a particular area. If we shape our intelligence around our policy objective (instead of the other way around) the process will be corrupted. Art spent a few months in 2003 and 2004 near Baghdad in 140 degree weather looking for weapons in the desert. By August 2003 it was clear to him that he was just going through the motions, but he had his marching orders and dutifully followed them out. He became certain there were no WMDs to be found. No one came forward with any viable information.

Segment 3: The Slow and Meticulous Dance.

The negotiations have resumed with Iran and the West over Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Historically, peacemaking arms control has been a very slow and meticulous dance. There is a lot of distrust. From the viewpoint of the U.S., Iran hasn’t wanted to negotiate in good faith. Art says Iranians think very differently from us, but they do think. They have a very keenly developed sense of their own self-interest, which does not include having their whole country destroyed. A lot of it has to do with national pride. For example, they can’t believe Pakistan has a nuclear weapon and they don’t.

Art is greatly concerned about Israel and how they take actions without considering American interest. They have a proven record of bombing other people’s nuclear facilities (Iraq and Syria) as well as assassinating weapon scientists. It is an established pattern.

Segment 4: It’s Not About the Gadgets.

The CIA’s definition of assassination is killing someone - usually for political reasons - from a country with whom you are not at war. Art’s book, Hollow Strength, is about assassinations, secrets and espionage. It’s technically fiction but is based on his real life experiences. Human Intelligence is not about gadgets; it’s about relationships with people. Ask yourself this question: How bad would it have to be in your own country for you to be a spy for another country?  

To listen to the complete interview:

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Segment 1: Hiking the Balkans.

In this edition of The Doug Noll Show we speak with Francis Tapon (http://francistapon.com/), who has traveled to over 75 countries. Francis has hiked the Appalachian Trail and the Pacific Crest Trail and in 2007 became the first person to do a round trip hike on the Continental Divide Trail. In this hour we will be discussing his travels in Eastern and Southeastern Europe, specifically throughout the Balkans. Francis found the Balkans fascinating and perplexing. He had very little understanding of the area until he visited, and discovered it was not as dangerous as one might think.

Segment 2: Religion is a Flag to Rally Behind.

Francis visited every single country in Eastern Europe. He spent the majority of his time in Slovenia and Croatia, the most modern and developed of all ex-Yugoslav countries. There are basically three ethnic groups in Bosnia: Serbs (who tend to be orthodox), Croatians (who tend to be Catholic) and Bosnians (who tend to be Muslim). We have a propensity to inextricably link them to these religions, but in reality, none of them are so serious about religion. They use their religion as a flag to rally behind rather than some deep, meaningful guiding purpose. The issues in the Balkans surround ethnicity, not religion.

Francis found warm welcomes in Serbia, Kosovo and Albania, which was a surprise. These areas are struggling with high unemployment and corruption, and their politics are a mess. There are three fractions, no one has control, and the EU has absolute veto power over all the Balkans. The Serbs who live in Bosnia don’t WANT to be part of Bosnia; they want to be part of Serbia. There are still strong nationalistic tendencies throughout the regions. The good news is that they are solving their disputes in the political or court arena instead of picking up a gun.

Segment 3: Albania and the Balkans: Still the Loose Cannons.

So what are prospects for continued peace in Eastern Europe? Francis thinks that there is an advantage to having an aging population in Eastern Europe (ie in Russia) because the older generation is not as quick to go to war. The depopulation is mainly due to an increased death rate (alcoholism and poor health habits), emigration (to the West) and decreased birth rate (people are choosing to have fewer children).There is also a Westward migration to join the EU. Although Francis believes tensions are lower than they have been in the last 100 years, the big risk in the region is still Albania and the Balkans.

Segment 4: Admittance to the EU?

In regards to the prospect of the Balkan countries gaining admittance into the EU, Croatia is joining in July of 2013 and Serbia has applied as well. Francis thinks the solution is for all of them to join the EU as one, despite the fact that they are all economically behind the other EU countries. In that way the playing field would be even.

To listen to the complete interview:

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Segment 1: We Live in a World of Stories.

Our guest on this edition of The Doug Noll Show is Dr. Amy Zalman (http://strategic-narrative.net/). Amy has worked to develop more culturally astute approaches to national security for over a decade. She is an expert on the strategic role of language and narratives in international affairs and violent conflict, and an authority on how the U.S. can better understand end engage foreign publics.

Amy has always had three enduring interests: language, political violence, and learning about foreign places. She finds that poetry and storytelling speaks to metaphor which in turn speaks to a different part of our brain. This enables people to look at problems – and solutions – in creative ways, which is crucial in the political and security arena. It is important to understand that we live inside this flow in order to work with others and have a positive influence.

Segment 2: The Myth of Redemptive Violence.

There is a myth in society that violence redeems evil and brings chaos under control. This is the “myth of redemptive violence” and it permeates every cartoon and every dramatic movie in society today. This plays out in our political affairs and in our culture. People respond to conflict that results in violence rather than stepping back and asking questions, learning skills, engaging in dialogue and thinking about possible implications. As a culture, we think violence is the answer to all of our problems. Yet, when we engage in violence we find that we spend enormous amounts of time and money trying to control events with power and force when we actually have no control at all. This “myth of redemptive violence” is one of the reasons that peace is so hard to achieve.

Segment 3: The Struggle to Reframe our Thinking.

Amy says there is a debate in Washington right now about whether the U.S. is in decline and how it should project itself within the world. We are in the middle of a battle to decide what kind of country we need to be in the world: one of community or one that continues to use force. Amy speaks with high-level personnel in the defense department and helps them reframe their thinking and their national stories. She often asks them, “Why would another country want YOUR story? They have their OWN national story.”

Segment 4: The Three Ways to Increase Power.

Strategic narrative within conflict resolution requires treading carefully around the parties and respecting their missions. There are three ways to be powerful enough to get people to do what you want them to do: you can coerce them, you can induce them with carrots on sticks, or you can attract/seduce them. You can get them to want what you want because you are so attractive. Amy encourages the military personnel to think about their own culture and who they are. This evokes some of the skills that they have with their own identity, which in turn helps them become more effective at peacemaking.

To listen to the complete interview:

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Segment 1: The Three Myths that Perpetuate War.

Our guest on this edition of The Doug Noll Show is Paul Chappell. Paul graduated from West Point in 2002 and served in the army for 7 years before leaving active duty in 2009 as a Captain. He is the author of a number of books and currently serves as the Peace Leadership Director for the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation, speaking throughout the country to colleges, high schools, veterans groups, churches and activist organizations.

Paul believes there are three myths that perpetuate war: first, human beings are naturally violent. Second, war is inevitable, and third, war makes us safe. Regarding the first myth, we are not born killers and do not have an innate desire to kill people, although there are all sorts of factors that cause people to become violent. Violence is taught by life experience and by our environment.

Segment 2: To Conquer or Be Conquered.

The second myth is that war is inevitable. This is a dangerous myth because as a country you only have two options: to be the conqueror or the conquered. In the U.S. we are considered to be culturally evolved and civilized, but if you look at countries like Afghanistan or Africa, they still see the world in terms of a power struggle. However, it is possible to renounce the use of war in one generation (i.e. Japan or Germany) especially if it is believed that it is their own best interest not to be waging war.

Segment 3: Peaceful Revolution.

The third myth is that war makes us safe. A lot of people believe that war is necessary to protect us from invasion, which is a philosophy based on fear. Paul believes virtually everyone wants peace, but they disagree on the means of achieving peace.

Trying to end war without understanding human nature is like trying to go to the moon without understanding the law of physics, so in Paul’s latest book, Peaceful Revolution, he sets out to research human nature within the context of war. Once we understand human nature we can pave a new path and look at alternatives to help us live in harmony. Paul looks at a large sample size (every war in human history) and finds that in every war the two sides dehumanize each other. He also discovers that in every war the propaganda says that people are fighting for something noble like protection of freedom (never for greed or money). These are universal truths in every culture and every time period and he uses them to make assertions about human nature and our powerful instincts.

Segment 4: The Mysteries of Human Nature.

So how do we go about teaching people about the positive values in human nature? Paul explores topics like empathy, hope, appreciation, discipline, curiosity and takes them out of the moral context and puts them into the context of human survival and human happiness. These attributes are vital for human survival and lead to more fulfilling and meaningful lives. Our commonalities transcend our differences. This is the path to peace.

To listen to the complete interview:

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One of the great cultural barriers to peacemaking involves what Walter Wink, a brilliant theologian, has described as the Myth of Redemptive Violence. His idea is that our culture is based on violence as a means of bring order out of chaos. In other words, the only thing that works against evil is violence. Peacemaking becomes frightening because it does not seem strong enough to overcome evil. The insane box office success of The Hunger Games demonstrates the power of the Myth of Redemptive Violence in our culture.
The Myth of Redemptive Violence permeates our life. In its simplest form, it is found in children’s entertainment. An indestructible good guy opposes an irreformable and equally indestructible bad guy. Nothing can kill the good guy, though for most of the (comic book, television episode, movie, or novel) he suffers grievously. Somehow, the hero breaks free, vanquishes the villain, and restores order. Nothing finally destroys the bad guy or prevents his reappearance. Bruce Willis, in his post-Moonlighting television series career, made a financial fortune exploiting this myth in his Die Hard movies. Clint Eastwood did the same in his early spaghetti westerns and later as Dirty Harry, the rogue San Francisco cop. So has Disney and countless other entertainment stars and celebrities.
If you pay attention, you will see that the structure of the combat myth is faithfully repeated in The Hunger Games. Our heroine is Katniss Everdeen. Though she's only a teenager, she's a tough hunter who puts food on her family's table. Her father is dead and she lives with her mother and sister Prim in District 12 in the country of Panem, a brutally oppressive autocracy. Every year the Capitol of Panem hosts an event called the Hunger Games where two "tributes" – a boy and a girl – are drafted from each of the twelve districts to be brought to an arena and fight to the death. Only one person can win. Katniss volunteers when her little sister is chosen as the tribute from District 12.
The game starts when the 24 tributes are transported to the arena to fight it out. Katniss is on her own. Eventually, she is cornered by the big rich kids, the Career Tributes. She drops a deadly wasp nest on them and wins a bow and arrow in the process.
After this, Katniss teams up with Rue, a tiny girl from District 11 who reminds her of her sister Prim. Rue is killed by one of the Career Tributes. Katniss honors her body by covering it in flowers.
After Rue's death, the announcer changes the rules of the game: two people from a single district can now win. Katniss goes hunting for Peeta, the boy from her District, and eventually finds him. He is wounded and camouflaged in the muddy bank of a stream. She nurses him back to health and realizes that by playing up the romance angle, they can get gifts from sponsors.
Eventually, Katniss and Peeta must face off with Cato, the leader of the Career Tributes and the only other surviving tribute, but before that they are all pursued by wild dogs which are actually genetically mutated killing machines. Finally, Katniss shoots Cato and he falls into the pack.
The announcer comes back on and says the rules have changed back: only one winner allowed.
Katniss and Peeta can't kill each other, so they make a show of taking poisonous berries in an act of double suicide. The announcer comes back on before they can kill themselves, and says that they win.
Here's how the Myth of Redemptive Violence works: A superior force representing chaos attacks aggressively; the champion fights back, defensively, only to be humiliated in apparent defeat; the evil power satisfies its lust while the hero is incapacitated; the hero escapes, defeats the evil power decisively, and reaffirms order over chaos. The structure of the story cannot be altered. The evil antagonist does not simply lose more often; he must always lose. The good guys must always win. The only way peace is established is through violence.

In all of this, no premium is placed on reasoning, persuasion, negotiation, or diplomacy, not to mention peacemaking. Confession, repentance, apology, and forgiveness are alien concepts in this myth. Villains are never redeemed from their bondage to evil or restored to true humanity. The law is viewed as too weak to deal with pure evil. Hence the gunslinger in the Wild West or Dirty Harry of the inner city takes the law into his own hands. In the movies, John Rambo acts outside the law to achieve justice. Katniss kills and wins against overwhelming odds The heroic results she achieves justify the illegal acts he employs.

Let’s be real here. Redemptive violence is satisfying. The idea of watching a cartoon or movie about peacemaking simply does not satisfy us like a good dose of The Hunger Games. However, this cultural myth dominates our entertainment and our thinking about conflict and is a real barrier to world peace. In this way, the entertainment industry conditions us to violence as a means of restoring and preserving order in an evil world.

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As a professional mediator, I am always encouraged by the use of mediation to resolve international conflicts. However, in the case of Syria, I have little confidence that mediation will bring peace to the conflict. Very few of the essential elements for successful mediation are present in this conflict.

The first consideration in convening any mediation is deciding who the parties at the table will be. In this case, the current Syrian government will certainly be a party. However, there does not appear to be a credible spokesperson for the rebels. One of the reasons that international support has not coalesced in support of the rebels like it did in Libya is because the rebels have not proven themselves capable of creating a coherent political force. Since mediation is about decision-making, we have to ask the question: "Who has the power to make binding decisions for the parties?" Obviously, the Syrian government can make decisions. Who, in the rebel group, can make binding decisions for the people that oppose the al Assad regime?

The Syrian National Council claims authority for the resistance against the al Assad regime. Burhan Galioun, a professor of political sociology at the Universite de Paris III Sorbonne University, was appointed as head of the SNC on August 29, 2011. However, Professor Galioun has made statements that are not universally shared by the various rebel factions. It is unlikely that either he or the Syrian National Council speaks for all factions.

One of the issues that plagues peaceful resolution of internal conflicts and civil wars is decision-making authority. It's one thing to mediate a dispute in a contested presidential election, when the disputants are easily recognized as political opponents. It's another thing altogether to mediate the dispute the between a fractious rebel group and an antagonistic government. The al Assad regime can rightfully ask by what authority to the representatives of the rebels come to the table? Any mediator taking on the Syrian problem will spend a considerable amount of time answering that question, and the entire enterprise will collapse if it is not answered thoroughly.

A related issue has to do with legitimizing the antagonists. In the 1970s, the protracted negotiations over the shapes of the tables and who would sit where in the US North Vietnam talks was about legitimizing primary parties at the table. In Syria’s case, the al Assad regime could protest participation of rebel representatives because allowing participation would confer unwanted legitimacy. At the outset, the mediator will have to be prepared to deal with challenges to legitimate participation by primary parties.

The people of Syria have the most at stake in any mediated talks. The mediator will have to consider how to make sure that the legitimate concerns of the people, which will include social and distributive injustices, political inclusion, economic reform, safety from violence and social stability. In this regard, the mediator may consider finding civil society representatives, including women, to participate as direct and primary participants. The mediator will have to secure the consent of the rebel representatives and the government representatives to share decision-making power with civil society representatives who otherwise would not have a voice in the process.

In addition to primary parties, mediation involves secondary parties. In the case of Syria, the secondary parties are numerous. They include Hamas, Iran, Russia and China, the US, Israel, and the EU, the Arab League, the UN, the Muslim Brotherhood, Sunni Arab nations such as Saudi Arabia, and other conservative Islamic groups. All of these parties have vested and conflicting interests in the outcome of the Syrian conflict. All of these parties wish to influence the outcome to benefit their particular interests. They will be seeking direct participation at the table. If they are denied participation of the table, they will seek to influence the process in other ways, including as spoilers. The mediator will have to design a process that provides for secondary party participation and inclusion, but does not permit undue interference in the direct talks between the primary parties.

Assuming that agreements can be reached upon who will participate in the process, the mediator will be confronted with what is to be mediated. The superficial answer will be to mediate a political solution to the violence. However, that is grossly insufficient to bring about a lasting peace. As we have seen in Kenya, the superficial political solution has led to continued gross economic and social injustice, continued tribal conflict, and the essential shutdown of an effective government. The Sentinel Project observes that Kenya is ripe for genocide. (http://thesentinelproject.org/wp-content/uploads/Risk-Assessment-Kenya-2011.pdf). I believe this is a direct result of the failure of the mediator to force Odinga and Kibaki to address serious structural injustices instead choosing to seek superficial political solutions through an ineffective and unworkable power-sharing arrangement.

The same problem exists in Syria, except that it is worse. Rather than mediating a contested presidential election, the mediator will have to end a civil war and deal with generations of abuse, injustice, and human rights violations. Burhan Ghalioun, the appointed head of the Syrian National Council, is skeptical of dialogue with the al Assad regime. “The regime is not interested in or willing to meet the requirements of a meaningful dialogue,” Ghalioun wrote. The opposition cannot join dialogue with “officials who contributed to or ordered the killing of defenseless children, women, and young people.” He has said that dialogue would be fruitless unless the clear objective was “to dismantle the regime of repression, oppression, and tyranny and replace it with a democratic order in which the people alone have the final say and the government is fully empowered and answerable to elected representatives of the people.”

Ghalioun believes that “dialogue should not mean a deal with the regime. It must not be about broadening the circle of participation” to members of the authorities; rather “it must be about a timetable for a transition to democracy by peaceful means, in the hope of avoiding more human casualties and material losses, and creating the necessary conditions for new institutions to be built and function properly.” To Ghalioun, the government leaders “lost their legitimacy” when they unleashed bloody violence against peaceful protesters.

From these statements, it is clear that if the mediator seeks a superficial political solution through power-sharing, without forcing the parties to confront the centuries old conflicts between the Alawites, the Sunnis, and the Syrian minorities, the mediation will make the situation worse, not better.

Thus, the mediator will be well advised to discuss what is to be mediated and to explore the potential range of outcomes that will be satisfactory to all of the participants. This exploration by itself will be time-consuming and exhausting as it will consist of a negotiation over what is to be negotiated. However, that is the work of the mediator and is to be anticipated and planned for.

Finally, does the mediator have the staying power that the Syrian mediation will require? In the Kenyan election crisis, the mediator abandoned the mediation process after six weeks and turned it over to another mediator who abandoned the process six weeks after that. There was no long-term plan for engagement and no plan for helping the parties resolve ongoing differences and conflicts. Will the mediator in the Syrian conflict be committed to the years it may take to bring peace to Syria? This is not a six week or six-month engagement. The intractability of the dispute and the ongoing violence suggests that a mediated negotiation might last for years. Even then, success will be problematic.

International conflict mediation has not been typified by exemplary mediation practice. Instead, most international conflict mediations have been ad hoc affairs conducted by diplomats and political envoys with little or no experience in decision making theory, conflict theory, neuro social psychology, behavioral economics, and a host of other disciplines that modern mediators study and practice. The Syrian conflict will call upon the deepest skills and reserves of the very best mediator. Even then, a peaceful resolution is improbable. I hope that the mediator considers some of these issues before he starts his work.

Douglas E. Noll is author of the award-winning book Elusive Peace: How Modern Diplomatic Strategies Could Better Resolve World Conflicts (Prometheus Books 2011). He may reached through the book website, www.elusivepeace.com.