dougnoll’s posthaven

Segment 1: The Irrationality of Nuclear Arms

Is there any rational reason to maintain nuclear weapons? On this edition of The Doug Noll Show we speak with Dr. David Krieger, Founder and President of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation, to discuss that question. A respected authority on foreign policy, international relations, peace and disarmament, Dr. Krieger has been at the forefront of the peace movement for 30 years. In 1982 he started his own dream organization: the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation. He was inspired to work for the abolition of nuclear weapons after visiting Hiroshima and Nagasaki and seeing the peace memorial museums --- powerful reminders of what happened in WWII. During his tenure as an International Relations professor he came to believe that the most important issue that confronts society today is the need to abolish nuclear weapons. It affects not only the people living today but future generations far into the future.

Dr. Krieger says when we realize nuclear weapons are maintained and strategies are developed totally on the basis of “rationality,” we come to understand that we’re betting the future of the world on the fact that we will continue to have leaders who are rational at all times, under all conditions and all circumstances. It’s a very unlikely proposition.

Segment 2: The Deterrence Argument

Is there any rational reason for maintaining nuclear weapons? Deterrence is not rational. Dr. Krieger argues unilaterally that we would be safer if we got rid of our Inter-Continental Ballistic Missiles. They are something to target in a time of high conflict or high stress. There are ICBMs in three states in the United States and the Senators of those three states, encouraged by industry and people who profit from those weapon sites, fight to maintain those ICMBs. Between $50 - $70 billion dollars a year are spent on the nuclear weapons industry.

Segment 3: Capable of Eliminating a Species

With that $70 billion dollars we could fund housing programs, provide education and Head Start programs for children, fund food programs, etc. Instead we are spending the money on preserving dinosaur-like weapons that can only be used in a manner that kills indiscriminately, violates national law, is immoral at the highest level and terribly costly.

If you consider the greatest threat today – terrorism – nuclear weapons have no value of deterrence. There is no “place” or “territory” to retaliate against. We need to convince countries throughout the world that we must eliminate the only weapon system in the world that is capable of eliminating us as a species.

Segment 4: The Non-Proliferation Treaty

The Non-Proliferation Treaty, which entered into force in 1970 and extended indefinitely in 1995, leveled the playing field to some extent. The countries who signed the treaty agreed to not acquire new nuclear weapons and to pursue disarmament, but there are still over 19,000 nuclear weapons in the world. Four countries did not sign the treaty: Isreal, India, Pakistan and North Korea. They don’t consider themselves bound by its provisions.

To listen to the entire interview:

Segment 1

Segment 2

Segment 3

Segment 4

Segment 1: “We’re going to war.”

Our guest on this edition of The Doug Noll Show is no stranger to war and espionage. Art Keller is a former CIA officer who served in the Counter-Proliferation Division, a unit responsible for spying on and sabotaging Weapons of Mass Destruction programs. He also has worked on terrorism cases and his last assignment was as acting Chief of Base in the tribal areas of Pakistan.

Art’s personal journey began after high school, when he joined the army and then studied foreign affairs in college. His interest in foreign affairs led him to apply to the CIA and after an arduous selection process (he applied multiple times, and later found out that was the norm) he was accepted into the CIA organization. He wound up in the Counter-Proliferation Division with instructions to keep an eye on weapons of mass destruction. It was Art’s job to cover Iran’s missile program, and he does not believe that Saddam Hussein ever had weapons of mass destruction (WMD). However, his Chief of Station returned from headquarters and announced that “the decision had already been made: we’re going to war.” It was shocking.

Segment 2: A Corrupted Process.

In order to make the best policies, the policy makers need to know what’s really happening in a particular area. If we shape our intelligence around our policy objective (instead of the other way around) the process will be corrupted. Art spent a few months in 2003 and 2004 near Baghdad in 140 degree weather looking for weapons in the desert. By August 2003 it was clear to him that he was just going through the motions, but he had his marching orders and dutifully followed them out. He became certain there were no WMDs to be found. No one came forward with any viable information.

Segment 3: The Slow and Meticulous Dance.

The negotiations have resumed with Iran and the West over Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Historically, peacemaking arms control has been a very slow and meticulous dance. There is a lot of distrust. From the viewpoint of the U.S., Iran hasn’t wanted to negotiate in good faith. Art says Iranians think very differently from us, but they do think. They have a very keenly developed sense of their own self-interest, which does not include having their whole country destroyed. A lot of it has to do with national pride. For example, they can’t believe Pakistan has a nuclear weapon and they don’t.

Art is greatly concerned about Israel and how they take actions without considering American interest. They have a proven record of bombing other people’s nuclear facilities (Iraq and Syria) as well as assassinating weapon scientists. It is an established pattern.

Segment 4: It’s Not About the Gadgets.

The CIA’s definition of assassination is killing someone - usually for political reasons - from a country with whom you are not at war. Art’s book, Hollow Strength, is about assassinations, secrets and espionage. It’s technically fiction but is based on his real life experiences. Human Intelligence is not about gadgets; it’s about relationships with people. Ask yourself this question: How bad would it have to be in your own country for you to be a spy for another country?  

To listen to the complete interview:

Segment 1

Segment 2

Segment 3

Segment 4