dougnoll’s posthaven

Segment 1:

In this edition of the Doug Noll show, we interview Dr. Gerald Garllucci about the history of the Balkans and Kosovo. Dr. Garllucci received his BA from Rutgers and his Ph.D. from University of Pittsburgh in Political Science. He worked in the US State Department for 25 years and then at the United Nations Department of Peacekeeping Operations. His blog is outsidewalls.blogspot.com.

Dr. Garllucci (Jerry) first joined the Foreign Service in 1980, with a post in Brazil. Through a connection within the State Department he applied for UN job and ended up in Mitrovica, the main city in the Northern Kosovo in 2005. He quickly found that he was trained as a diplomat but not a peacekeeper. At that time the UN was grappling with being called upon to do peacekeeping but not having the resources or training to be entirely successful. Additionally, the mandates in Kosovo were over-ambitious and difficult to fulfill.

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Jerry worked in the Security Council in 1998-1999 after the collapse of USSR, and during this time the US government thought Russia was no longer an issue. However, when the Serbs started making trouble in Yugoslavia, there was imperative political pressure for the US to do something. The Russians saw this as an area where their sphere of influence was being violated and they felt that NATO itself was at the core of it. A common approach was difficult. Ultimately a peace agreement was reached that resulted in Kosovo being partially recognized as a foreign nation. This resolution never settled the issue of independence and failed to win support among the Contact Group (5 western countries) and Russia.

Although there was a failure to reach a full agreement, the decision of the US and other western countries was to go ahead and recognize the independence. Key point: it is easier to break something than to make something. Problems that have existed for centuries cannot be solved overnight. You cannot bring peace to people if the timing is not right.

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Kosovo history: 100 years ago this region was Ottoman province. When the Balkans fell out of control of the Ottomans, it became part of Yugoslavia. Yugoslavia was an effort to hold together the Balkans despite existing of people of different faiths, beliefs and ethnicities. During the 1990s it began to break up along ethnic lines, which led to the Balkans Wars. The dispute over Kosovo was the last piece of this issue. The Albanians were stripped of their power, a war broke out, and NATO intervened and broke the Serbian control over Kosovo. This left an Albanian majority in a state of frozen conflict. In essence, Kosovo is faced with a situation common around the world: intra-country conflict – ethnic groups not wanting to be governed by other ethnic groups.

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So how does Kosovo move forward and find peace? Dr. Garllucci believes they need to find a way to let the two sides come to grips themselves, without imposed guidelines, deadlines or agendas, to reach a compromise. There are various formulas for this. The new Serbian government is ready to tackle the Kosovo problem. To the Albanians, the key element is the United States.

Listen to the complete interview here:

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Segment 1: Hiking the Balkans.

In this edition of The Doug Noll Show we speak with Francis Tapon (http://francistapon.com/), who has traveled to over 75 countries. Francis has hiked the Appalachian Trail and the Pacific Crest Trail and in 2007 became the first person to do a round trip hike on the Continental Divide Trail. In this hour we will be discussing his travels in Eastern and Southeastern Europe, specifically throughout the Balkans. Francis found the Balkans fascinating and perplexing. He had very little understanding of the area until he visited, and discovered it was not as dangerous as one might think.

Segment 2: Religion is a Flag to Rally Behind.

Francis visited every single country in Eastern Europe. He spent the majority of his time in Slovenia and Croatia, the most modern and developed of all ex-Yugoslav countries. There are basically three ethnic groups in Bosnia: Serbs (who tend to be orthodox), Croatians (who tend to be Catholic) and Bosnians (who tend to be Muslim). We have a propensity to inextricably link them to these religions, but in reality, none of them are so serious about religion. They use their religion as a flag to rally behind rather than some deep, meaningful guiding purpose. The issues in the Balkans surround ethnicity, not religion.

Francis found warm welcomes in Serbia, Kosovo and Albania, which was a surprise. These areas are struggling with high unemployment and corruption, and their politics are a mess. There are three fractions, no one has control, and the EU has absolute veto power over all the Balkans. The Serbs who live in Bosnia don’t WANT to be part of Bosnia; they want to be part of Serbia. There are still strong nationalistic tendencies throughout the regions. The good news is that they are solving their disputes in the political or court arena instead of picking up a gun.

Segment 3: Albania and the Balkans: Still the Loose Cannons.

So what are prospects for continued peace in Eastern Europe? Francis thinks that there is an advantage to having an aging population in Eastern Europe (ie in Russia) because the older generation is not as quick to go to war. The depopulation is mainly due to an increased death rate (alcoholism and poor health habits), emigration (to the West) and decreased birth rate (people are choosing to have fewer children).There is also a Westward migration to join the EU. Although Francis believes tensions are lower than they have been in the last 100 years, the big risk in the region is still Albania and the Balkans.

Segment 4: Admittance to the EU?

In regards to the prospect of the Balkan countries gaining admittance into the EU, Croatia is joining in July of 2013 and Serbia has applied as well. Francis thinks the solution is for all of them to join the EU as one, despite the fact that they are all economically behind the other EU countries. In that way the playing field would be even.

To listen to the complete interview:

Segment 1

Segment 2

Segment 3

Segment 4