Segment 1: Syria’s Recent History. Our guest on this edition of The Doug Noll Show is Dr. James Paul. Dr. Paul is an independent scholar and consultant who served until recently as Executive Director of Global Policy Forum, an organization that monitors policy making at the United Nations. Paul is an expert on the UN Security Council and he wrote a book about Syria titled “Syria Unmasked.” He has been very active as a media commentator during the present crisis with Syria.
Dr. Paul points out that Syria is a very diverse country. It has a population of 23 million people, and is a modern country. Its people are well educated. It is a relatively secular country and not a land of religious extremists. After years of underground work that tried to move Syria toward a more democratic society, in the spring of 2011 there were protests. Many cities were involved and there was a crack-down by the government. There was a commitment to non-violence, but unfortunately some chose to take up arms. Almost immediately foreign arms and foreign fighters started to come into the country, which is now known as the rebel movement. This movement is particularly severe in the North. Over 100,000 people have now been killed and much of the infrastructure has been destroyed.
Segment 2: National Coordination Body and Jihadis. So how did Bashar Assad, the President of Syria, became head of the regime? Dr. Paul said it was a family matter. The military and political people surrounding the Assad family are very powerful and are calling the shots.
There are two currents within Syria and the biggest, the National Coordination Body, is non-violent. The National Coordination Body started the protests in 2011, and many of the leaders have been exiled for years. On the military side the dominant force is the Jihadis. They are the sphere carriers for the entire military campaign, and many of them are foreigners.
Segment 3: Russia’s Involvement. Dr. Paul says the main hope among the non-violent Syrians is that there will be a Peace Conference. Historically the US administration has not been interested in connecting with the non-violent Syrians. They are interested in the armed rebellion because it would essentially lead them to be able (more or less) to install their friends in a new government. They believe they are headed toward a military victory, although Dr. Paul thinks it’s difficult to see how a military victory could be had.
As far as Russia is concerned, we are on dangerous ground. The last great use of chemical weapons was in the Iran-Iraq war and the United States itself provided the chemical weapons precursors to Suddam Hussein. The U.S. is up to its ears in responsibility.
Segment 4: Preserve the State. So what is likelihood that the non-violent opposition will be able to form a different kind of civil society in Syria? It depends on the way the current government is pushed out. It could be very chaotic. It would be best if there was an international agreement as to the various stages of a slow transition. We need to think about how to make the transition in such a way that preserves the institutions. There is no reason for a failed state in Syria. They need to preserve the state; this has to be a priority.
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